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The Swedish agreement model’s big test

In 2016 the Swedish wage setting model is being put to its biggest test for several decades. Agreements must be made for some three million employees, but the members of the Swedish Confederation of Trade Unions (LO) are split, and different demands from different unions and trades risk breaking a nearly 20 year old tradition where the industry has set the norm for wage increases.
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Facts:

The 2016 wage negotiations affect three million employees in Sweden – that’s more or less all of them. There are some 685 collective agreements in total in Sweden and in 2016 500 of them will be up for renegotiation. Beyond that, there are 300,000 people on open-ended contracts who can be made redundant in the course of 2016.

LO has broken out of the cooperation which saw unions present a joint offer, and where the competitive industry set the norm for wage increases. 

Industrial trade unions have called for a 2.8 percent pay rise, while Kommunal (the Swedish Municipal Workers’ Union) has called for 3.3 percent and Handels (the Commercial Employee’s Union) 3.1 percent. A group of unions within LO known as 6F, comprising Byggnads (the Swedish Building Workers’ Union), Elektrikerna (the Swedish Electricians' Union), Målarna (the Swedish Painters’ Union), Fastighets (the Swedish Real Estate Agents Union) and Seko (The Swedish Union for Service and Communications Employees) calls for 3.2 percent. Other trade unions within TCO (The Swedish Confederation of Professional Employees) and Saco (the Swedish Confederation of Professional Associations) have so far not presented any demands.

Too early to write off the Swedish model?

“LO in Sweden is probably facing a greater challenge than in Norway. But you should be careful to predict the permanent demise of the coordinated wage setting model. This is not the first time the social partners have failed to coordinate their demands. After a few years they have usually come back,” says Jon Erik Dølvik, a researcher at Norway's Fafo research foundation. 

On 15 February Fafo hosts a seminar on Swedish and Norwegian wage negotiations, based on a report written in cooperation with the Centre for Wage Formation: ‘The Frontfag Model yesterday, today and tomorrow’.

The ‘frontfag’ model is similar to Sweden’s wage setting model, which means the competitive industry decides how big wage increases can be before they become unsustainable. 

“Nordic trade unions have always studied each other and have been inspired by each other. But they have different histories and are to a degree organised in different ways. In Norway you won’t find the same clear division between workers and officials, for instance. Norwegian LO organises both groups and even though trade union membership is lower, LO dominates completely when it comes to wage negotiations in the private sector.”

In the short term employers are probably more influence by each other. If employers in one country for instance demand more flexibility in wage negotiations, this could impact on employers in a different country. 

Jon Erik Dølvik points out that the industry sector also influences the negotiation process. Norway, with its large oil sector, is very dependent on coordinating wage negotiations. If everyone followed the oil sector’s wage standards, other industries would not survive. In Sweden technology firms in the IT sector play a bigger part.

Björn Lindahl

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