Five years left for Nordics to reach aim of being world’s greenest region

COP24 became COP29 from work on the vision started until today. The world’s most important climate meetings also have a Nordic pavilion. At the latest gathering, in Baku, Azerbaijan, representatives from the Nordic Council of Ministers tried to show the way towards a climate-neutral and socially sustainable future. 

The Nordic pavilion at COP29 in Baku. Photo: Andreas Omvik/Norden.org

“The Nordic countries are working to lead by example, taking on the global challenges shared by every nation. Our ecological footprint remains high, but we are committed to reducing it. Not only to lessen the strain on Earth’s resources but also to show that sustainable, prosperous societies are achievable,” Secretary General Karen Ellemann wrote in an op-ed when the meeting started.

But sometimes, things feel difficult. Donald Trump has been re-elected US President. That probably means the USA will withdraw from the Paris Agreement again, like Trump did the last time he was President.

The war in Ukraine has been raging for more than 1,000 days. The weapons being used are more and more powerful, and another country, North Korea, has entered into the conflict. This means Europe’s leaders are thinking more about security than the environment.

A trade war between the USA and China is brewing, and Europe will get caught in the middle. China is close to dominating the world market in green technology. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD has overtaken Tesla and Chinese companies lead in solar, wind and batteries.

As if this was not enough, there have also been negative developments in the Nordics. 

Sweden’s big, green hope, Northvolt’s battery factory in Skellefteå, has gone bust. In Mo i Rana in Norway, the Freyr battery company constructed a factory costing nearly three billion kroner (€259m), before competition from China meant the plans had to be put on hold.

There has been no breakthrough in carbon capture and storage, a technology described as essential for keeping the temperature increase to a maximum of 1.5 degrees.

The Greta Thunberg generation is older, while others take more extreme action like throwing paint at artworks. 

Is that too negative a summary?

Environmental efforts are rarely in lockstep with an impatient media that wants results now and has not got the patience to wait for five years. It is rare to see new technological innovation that both helps save the environment and works well.

But this summer, I saw the new drinks can and bottle reverse vending machine from Norwegian company Tomra for the first time.

This is not like the traditional machines where you feed bottles and cans one by one through a hole, which quickly leads to queues when sports team volunteers bring large plastic bags filled with empty bottles. 

On the new machine, you simply open a lid and empty the entire bag into it. The machine then quickly sorts out the empty goods and calculates the return. 

Looking at the wider picture, quite a lot has happened, even though what has been achieved varies between different countries: 

The graph shows the Nordic countries' greenhouse gas emissions. 1990 is the benchmark used as a starting point in international negotiations. Source: Nordic Statistics.

Greenhouse gas emissions have fallen. The reference point is 1990, the year of the big environmental conference in Geneva. Everything is measured and negotiated against that level. Measured in CO₂ equivalents (where all greenhouse gases are converted into CO₂), countries have by and large achieved a quarter of the reductions needed to reach net zero. 

Since 1990, the Nordic countries have reduced their territorial net GHG emissions from 203 million tonnes of CO₂e to 150 million tonnes of CO₂e by 2021, which equals a 26 per cent reduction.

Denmark has come the furthest. Their emissions have been cut by 59 per cent on 1990 levels, while Norway is almost level. Emissions in Iceland have increased.

The graph shows the proportion of renewable energy as part of the total energy consumption. Source: Nordic Statistics.

The proportion of renewable energy has also increased. Here Iceland is on top, but Norway too – with its hydroelectric power – features high up.

To place the responsibility for influencing these trends only on the shoulders of the Nordic Council of Ministers and the Nordic Council is asking too much of institutions with a combined annual budget of less than one billion Danish kroner (€134m). 

However, if you consider more limited measures, like how many licenses have been issued to use the Nordic Swan – the official environmental label that reviews the environmental impact on goods and services throughout their life cycle from raw material to waste – the development has been encouraging. 

The number of licenses awarded to products that meet the Nordic Swan label criteria. Source: Nordic Statistics.

But how does the Council of Ministers plan to reach the goals of Vision 2030? This is outlined in the cooperation programme for 2025 – 2030. Each council of ministers has developed its own sectorial policy programme, totalling 14 programmes, that “with a common focus, clear priorities and targeted measures will guide government cooperation in the Nordic Council of Ministers until 2030.”   

The program for the labour market says that much points to there being fewer jobs in some sectors and more in others as a result of the green and digital transitions. So it will be important to help those who risk losing their jobs find new ones in other sectors with growth potential. 

To manage this, more knowledge is needed about which skills are in demand. It is also important to ensure green and digital transitions also happen outside of the bigger cities.

That is about all the labour market programme says about the green transition. Since education is a separate sector, we move on to the cooperation programme where one of the sub-goals is: 

“There must be a good match between the education system and the available jobs and skills needed to realise the green transition and maintain a strong welfare society.”

There is not that much about the green transition in this programme either, but we presume there are more concrete measures listed in the cooperation programme on the environment and climate. Certainly, the ambitions are high:

• “The Nordic region will demonstrate that it is possible to live within the planet’s limits while maintaining high prosperity.” 
• This sounds a bit like having your cake and eating it. But if we sum up the many goals it looks like this: 
• The Nordic countries will work for an ambitious implementation of the long-term goals set out in the Paris Agreement.
• A transition to completely fossil-free transportation requires infrastructure for sustainable fuels and a transformation of the vehicle fleet. The Nordic countries will share information and work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from global shipping and aviation.
• The Nordic countries will support new technology and the development of infrastructure for the capture, use and storage of CO₂ . Solutions based on natural carbon sequestration will also be promoted.
• There will be Nordic cooperation to influence and accelerate efforts to stop biodiversity losses.
• The Nordic countries will continue to develop their cooperation on marine environmental issues. Sustainable fishing is a prerequisite for future generations’ ability to use fish stocks as a source of income.
• The transition to a circular economy means changes to design, production, the choice of production methods and consumer patterns. A common Nordic market can facilitate the development of solutions like reuse and recycling not least in the construction industry. Important policy instruments include public procurement, environmental labelling, financial incitements, education, eco-design and producer responsibility.
• The Nordic countries will continue to work to prevent the presence of hazardous products and ensure that problematic substances are not found in the circular economy.

These goals of course require that there are enough people with the necessary skills. You could almost wish there were a machine where you could pour in all the problems and after it had churned for a while, it would produce clear solutions to each problem.