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Nordic region next stop for the Portuguese?

Will the Nordic countries see an influx of labour form crisis-hit Mediterranean EU countries? Portugal’s emigration rose by 85 percent in 2011 and 240,000 Portuguese - two percent of the entire population - have emigrated in the past two years. In Switzerland they already make up the largest group of people born abroad. But are the Nordic countries equally tempting?
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Kaleidoscope migratory patterns

If you want to analyse Nordic citizens’ migration within the five Nordic countries, you need to take 40 different patterns into account because Swedes can move to Denmark, but Swedes can also move back home from Denmark. In other words, Swedes can move in eight different ways, and the other four nationalities have the same opportunities. 5 x 8 = 40.

Within the 30 EU/EEA countries there are 29 countries to which people can move, and as many countries they can move back home from. That means you have 30 x 58 = 1740 different migratory patterns to keep on top of. If you wanted to set up a matrix of all the possible movements on a global scale, you get 250,000 possibilities! 

Kaleidoscope

Photo: Wikipedia

And then we are still only taking into account a country’s own citizens. When the EU opened its borders to new member states from former eastern Europe, one of the big surprises was that Poles didn’t pour into Germany. Instead many Poles who already lived in Germany moved to the UK.

Immigrants are also divided into four main groups:

  • Labour immigrants
  • Refugees
  • Family reunification
  • Students

But refugees need jobs too - just like family members who arrive as part of family reunifications. If a country introduces rules for refugees that are too strict it risks scaring off other job seekers by appearing to be anti-immigration. Many countries are debating whether social rights should apply to family members who do not live in the country. In Norway the child benefit for one year olds has become popular among Polish mothers who are still living in Poland, where the costs of living are lower than in Norway. But if the rules for ‘cash support‘ are tightened the effect could be that the entire family moves to Norway.

 
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